Iran vs. US, lets apply some logical thinking.

There is alot of sabre rattling by the US these days towards Iran. The administration is already actively painting the picture that Iran is a serious and legitimate threat to the security of the United States. Again this falls in line with the pattern of ruling by fear. The fact of the matter is that neither country would have anything to gain by going to war, least of all Iran which begs the question, are they even posturing for a conflict?

First off let’s look at the alleged ace in the hole of the Bush administration, the nuclear program (which the US actually helped Iran start in the 1950's). There are two schools of thought on this issue, the first being the Bush School of thought that Iran is developing and already has the capability to produce nuclear weapons. Based on "intelligence" the administration claims this is the case. Bare in mind this is the same "intelligence" gathering that led us into the Iraq war under false pretenses. The second school of thought is that Iran is not allowing inspectors in to see their nuclear program because they have failed to produce anything close to nuclear weapons grade plutonium yet. I would say that this is more than likely the case with Iran. Also, why on earth should Iran not be allowed to develop nuclear energy and weapons, I know for a fact if I was any other country in the Middle East that I would be trying knowing that the militaristic regime in Israel has nuclear weapons. The countries surrounding Israel would be stupid not to be developing these technologies. Then there is also the chance that Iran is using the nuclear program to actually develop energy sources to use other than Oil which would be a great thing for any country.

Next, let’s look at this from a Military stand point. The US, although short on manpower due to Iraq is the strongest military in the world. We are vastly superior to Iran in terms of Naval and air power in any conflict and despite all the showing off that Iran has done recently with their naval and ground forces they know this. This leads to the understanding from Iran that their Navy and Air force would not stand for 24 hours in the face of what would be an overwhelming attack by US forces (which would be another illegitimate mass murdering in a preemptive war). After the initial attack there is no doubt that much like Iraq, Iran's infrastructure would be in total ruins setting the country back years. This is not what the government in Iran wants or needs. For the US the initial war would go quickly and smoothly much like Iraq, but the aftereffects would be devastating. If we think that we are seeing a powerful insurgency in Iraq then there is no way that the US would have the stomach for what would occur in Iran. The elite military units of the Iranian military would no doubt disband and meld into the insurgency that would begin. There would be much more sophisticated and advanced IED's** as well as military tactics overall and unlike Iraq, the people in Iran are not living with the hatred of their government so there goes the "lets free them" idea.

Another interesting thing to look at is that Iran has not started any military conflict in decades, especially not since the Iranian Revolution of 1979. Whereas the US in the same time period has started numerous conflicts and has intervened in many others (this is the new US imperialism).

So logically who would appear to be the instigator of this potential conflict? I think when you add up the realities of the situation that Iran knows that they have nothing to gain with open conflict with the US. George Bush and Cheney no doubt see this as another just cause no doubt supported by their twisted and ideological world view. The fact is however that it would result in another conflict that US would have no chance in sustaining with troop levels and like Iraq that they would have no chance in actually achieving victory. If anyone who reads this can tell the last time a western army went into the Middle East and was actually able to conquer and replace a regime I would love to hear it. Western thinking cannot realize the overwhelming role of religion and religious classes in Middle Eastern life; we cannot understand that democracy is not what these countries want. The sooner we change our foreign policy and the sooner we realize that we have nothing to gain by trying to influence the affairs of countries that don’t want our help the better off we will be as a country.

On a side note I’m sure many people aren’t really paying attention to the events that unfolded in Lebanon recently; the rise of Sunni insurgent groups against the Lebanese government . I’m sure also that many people don’t know how this all occurred. Here is what went down. After Hezbollah stood up to the might of the Israeli onslaught and proved themselves a very capable guerilla organization the United States became a bit worried. In an attempt to counter this Shiite militia that lives in Lebanon the US began to fund and equip various Sunni organizations to act as a counter to Hezbollah (look there, encouraged sectarian violence). Well as a result there are now well equipped and funded Sunni groups who have decided that they aren’t the biggest fans of the Lebanese government so they took actions. So lets see how our actions worked there, we armed Sunnis to fight Shiites, instead they fight a democratically elected government. Looks to me like we lose on both counts and have only created more problems for ourselves in the Middle East. It is very similar to what occurred in Afghanistan in terms of arming one group to support our cause only to find out that our causes are not the same. Gives great credence to the quote "Those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it" good job George W, you've made some great decisions in your two terms so far, lets see how many more lives you can cost this great nation and how many more conflicts you can create you are hands down the worst president in the history of the United States.

For a further example of the US not practicing what it preaches in terms of exporting democracy (which Bush actually was opposed to in his first campaign as well as using our troops for nation building.) we need only look at our close ally Pakistan. Pakistan is governed my a military dicator in "president" Musharaf who took power in a coup. Simply because he attached the word president to his title doesnt make him democratically elected. Yet we supply this military dictatorship with millions and millions of dollar of aid as he continues to supress the rights of his people. If our foreign policy doesnt help to breed hate I dont know what would. If you are one of the Americans who think the Arab world hates us for our freedom, I suggest you stop watching TV and pick up a book.

**Interstingly enough, despite the Pentagons best efforts to better protect US troops from IED attacks, they are killing soldiers with more regularity than ever. A great example of a guerilla movement out thinking and outpacing a multi billion dollar militart industrial complex.